[VON교양]월드뷰 제4회 – 미북정상회담이 실패한다면, 전쟁이 다가온다
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이번 시간은 The hill의 If the Trump-Kim summit fails(or never happens), war is guaranteed 기사를 통해 국제정세를 들여다보는 시간을 가졌습니다!
If the Trump-Kim summit fails (or never happens), war is guaranteed
The Hill March 29
Why A Summit Won’t Happen
For the moment, it seems Team Trump wants a clear commitment of total nuclear disarmament from Kim and some big steps towards that goal before even talking about any easing of sanctions or other benefits. If this is not in the offing, I doubt President Trump ever boards Air Force One.
North Korea too will also have some big goals as well. These would most likely include, as an opening bid: The ending of all economic sanctions, a security guarantee from China, a peace treaty ending the Korean War, formal diplomatic recognition from Washington, and most likely billions of dollars in economic aid. However, Kim might want even more, and might make unattainable demands such as the ending of the U.S.-Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance or the full withdrawal of the U.S. forces from all of Northeast Asia. I would expect that if Kim can’t get at least multiple concessions before a date is set leading up to the summit then it will never happen.
The Summit Could Go Bad
As there is no trust between Washington and Pyongyang and very few diplomatic contacts, it will be nearly impossible for both sides to come to any sort of agreement before a summit happens. Considering how both men have no prior relationship, no chemistry or trust to build on the chances are great that such a summit is doomed to fail.
The Path to War Is Now Clear
The Trump administration will be forced to select from two very bad choices if things were to go back to the state of tensions witnessed in 2017. America could choose to contain North Korea for perhaps decades, playing a cat and mouse game that could grow frustrating and see Pyongyang sell much of its nuclear technology to the highest bidder. Or, Washington could settle on a military strike of overwhelming power that is aimed towards regime change.
Both are horrible options, but Washington has only two real choices if this summit fails. And knowing that President Trump has tapped John Bolton and Mike Pompeo to join his administration, the president could very well be preparing to make the ultimate of choices, and could be leaning towards an attack if America’s summit hopes are dashed.
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The pessimist sees difficulty in every opportunity. The optimist sees the opportunity in every difficulty. By Winston Churchill
기사 원문 링크: http://thehill.com/opinion/national-s…
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